Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 8

Since it started in its current format as the NFL’s main primetime package in 2006, the defining feature of NBC’s Sunday Night Football has been the use of flexible scheduling to ensure the best matchups and showcase the best teams as the season goes along. Well, that’s the theory, anyway; the reality has not always lived up to the initial hype and has at times seemed downright mystifying. Regardless, I’m here to help you figure out what you can and can’t expect to see on Sunday nights on NBC.

A full explanation of all the factors that go into flexible scheduling decisions can be found on my NFL Flexible Scheduling Primer, but here’s the Cliffs Notes version with all the important points you need to know:

• The season can be broken down into three different periods (four if you count the first four weeks where flexible scheduling does not apply at all) for flexible scheduling purposes, each with similar yet different rules governing them: the early flex period, from weeks 5 to 10; the main flex period, from weeks 11 to 17; and week 18. In years where Christmas forces either the Sunday afternoon slate or the Sunday night game to Saturday in Week 16, flex scheduling does not apply that week, and the main flex period begins week 10. Note: This year NBC’s press release indicated that the main flex period begins in Week 11 even though Christmas falls on Sunday. I’m assuming this is correct and the result of NBC still being able to have six weeks in the main flex period despite this because of the expansion of the season.
• In all cases, only games scheduled for Sunday may be moved to Sunday night. Thursday and Monday night games are not affected by Sunday night flexible scheduling (discounting the “flexible scheduling” applied to Saturdays in December in recent years – see below).
• During the early and main flex periods, one game is “tentatively” scheduled for Sunday night and listed with the Sunday night start time of 8:20 PM ET. This game will usually remain at that start time and air on NBC, but may be flexed out for another game and moved to 1, 4:05, or 4:25 PM ET on Fox or CBS, no less than 12 days in advance of the game.
• No more than two games can be flexed to Sunday night over the course of the early flex period. If the NFL wishes to flex out a game in the early flex period twelve days in advance, CBS and Fox may elect to protect one game each from being moved to Sunday night. This is generally an emergency valve in situations where the value of the tentative game has plummeted since the schedule was announced, namely in cases of injury to a key star player.
• CBS and Fox may also each protect games, historically in five out of six weeks of the main flex period, but all of those protections must be submitted after week 5, week 4 in years where the main flex period begins week 10 (so it is always six weeks before the start of the main flex period).
• No team may appear more than six times across the league’s three primetime packages on NBC, ESPN, and Fox/NFL Network, and only three teams are allowed to appear that often, with everyone else getting five. In addition, no team may appear more than four times on NBC. All teams’ number of appearances heading into this season may be seen here.
• According to the league’s official page, teams are notified when “they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.” However, they rarely make this known to the fans, and the list of each network’s protections has never officially been made public. It used to leak fairly regularly, but has not leaked since 2014.
• In all cases, the NFL is the ultimate arbiter of the schedule and consults with CBS, Fox, and NBC before moving any games to prime time. If the NFL does elect to flex out the Sunday night game, the network whose game is flexed in may receive the former tentative game, regardless of which network would “normally” air it under the “CBS=AFC, Fox=NFC” rules, keeping each network’s total number of games constant. At the same time, the NFL may also move games between 1 PM ET and 4:05/4:25 PM ET. However, this feature focuses primarily if not entirely on Sunday night flexible scheduling.
• In Week 18, the entire schedule is set on only six days notice, ensuring that NBC gets a game with playoff implications, generally a game where the winner is the division champion. More rarely, NBC may also show an intra-division game for a wild card spot, or a game where only one team wins the division with a win but doesn’t win the division with a loss, but such situations are rare and 2018 and 2020, respectively, were the first times it showed such games. If no game is guaranteed to have maximum playoff implications before Sunday night in this fashion, the league has been known not to schedule a Sunday night game at all. To ensure maximum flexibility, no protections or appearance limits apply to Week 17. The NFL also arranges the rest of the schedule such that no team playing at 4:25 PM ET (there are no 4:05 games Week 17) could have their playoff fate decided by the outcome of the 1 PM ET games, which usually means most if not all of the games with playoff implications outside Sunday night are played at 4:25 PM ET, except for two games moved to Saturday to be simulcast on ESPN and ABC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 20):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 2-6. The Bengals are looking decidedly mediocre while the Steelers are in last place in the division.
• Likely protections: Chiefs-Chargers or Cowboys-Vikings (CBS) and Bears-Falcons, Rams-Saints, or nothing (FOX).
• Other possible games: Either of CBS’ potentially protected games would be very strong; Chiefs-Chargers pits the top two teams in the AFC West after the barnburner they put on to start Amazon’s TNF slate, while Cowboys-Vikings is 6-2 v. 6-1 (and probably more likely to be protected, because Cowboys). Jets-Patriots is the only other game on the slate involving two teams at .500 or better, with Eagles-Colts involving a team a half-game behind that mark but probably too lopsided to be relevant, and any other games running out of time and being behind too many other games.
• Analysis: We’re actually at the point where Chiefs-Chargers at 5-2 v. 4-3 isn’t that much better than Jets-Patriots at 5-3 v. 4-4. Assuming Cowboys-Vikings is protected (or that the NFL does CBS a solid by letting them keep it no matter what; note that the Cowboys would be maxed out on both general primetime and NBC appearances with a flex), I would imagine that all else being equal, the league would rather give NBC Jets-Patriots as they might have larger fanbases, both Chiefs and Chargers would be maxed out on primetime appearances with a flex (though so would the Patriots), and it allows CBS to keep one half of a divisional rivalry. On the other hand, CBS might be fine with losing Chiefs-Chargers if it means more markets get Cowboys-Vikings, since Jets-Patriots can be played in the early slot and Chiefs-Chargers can’t. What gives me pause is that the Chiefs and Chargers might be the likeliest of the potentially-maxed-out teams to be flexed in again later in the season, but the Chiefs aren’t particularly likely as their best chance would involve the Cowboys being flexed out. Dolphins-Chargers Week 14 might be more of a concern, as it’s fairly mediocre and behind two very strong alternatives, but both of them have decent chances to be protected and the Broncos are struggling enough that Dolphins-Chargers might still be flexed in if it’s the best unprotected option, and with the Broncos on post-London bye they don’t have a chance to prove they’re good enough not to be flexed out. I don’t know that Chiefs-Broncos is particularly likely to be flexed out in favor of Dolphins-Chargers (even though both games have juicy quarterback matchups), and the Chargers’ game against the Rams might itself be flexed out later in the year, but if the Patriots win to climb above .500 I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jets-Patriots flexed in. If it is, though, I’m taking that as confirmation of the Week 14 protections, even though there could be other reasons to flex that game in.
• Final prediction: Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (if Cowboys-Vikings is protected); Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings (if it isn’t).

Week 12 (November 27):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ Philadelphia
• Prospects: 3-5 v. 7-0, definitely lopsided but still pitting Aaron Rodgers against the league’s last unbeaten team, and the name value of the teams involved may yet save this game despite some decent alternatives.
• Likely protections: Ravens-Jaguars, Bengals-Titans, Chargers-Cardinals, or nothing (CBS) and Rams-Chiefs, Saints-49ers, or nothing (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games; Bengals-Titans and Falcons-Warnocks are the only Sunday games involving two teams at or above .500, with Rams-Chiefs not too far behind. Bears-Jets, Chargers-Cardinals, and Saints-Niners are dark horses.

Week 13 (December 4):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Dallas
• Prospects: 3-4-1 v. 6-2. Getting lopsided, but a good Cowboys team is almost certainly not being flexed out.
• Likely protections: Jets-Vikings, Chiefs-Bengals, or nothing (CBS) and Titans-Eagles or Dolphins-49ers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Jets-Vikings and Titans-Eagles both pit two teams above .500, with Chiefs-Bengals, Genericnames-Giants and Dolphins-Niners involving teams at that mark and Seahawks-Rams just a bit behind. Broncos-Ravens is a dark horse while Packers-Bears at this point is only worth mentioning because of the name value of the teams and rivalry.

Week 14 (December 11):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ Denver
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-5. The Broncos are not living up to the hype of Russell Wilson’s arrival, needing a late comeback to beat the 2-6 Jaguars in London, and this game could still be concerningly lopsided.
• Likely protections: Jets-Bills or Dolphins-Chargers (CBS) and Bucs-49ers or Eagles-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Eagles-Giants and Jets-Bills would be surefire picks to be flexed in at the moment if they’re left unprotected; see above on Dolphins-Chargers’ chances if they are. Browns-Bengals has joined Bucs-49ers as dark horses.

Week 15 (December 18):

• Tentative game: New England @ Las Vegas
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 2-5, not exactly what NBC was hoping for but reasonably resilient to a potential flex given the name value of the teams and this being the week with a flexed-in Saturday slate.
• Likely protections: Probably Titans-Chargers (CBS) and Cowboys-Jaguars, Eagles-Bears, or nothing (FOX).
• Other possible games: As usual, assuming the games set aside for a potential move to Saturday can’t be protected; Dolphins-Bills is the clear favorite on the slate right now, while Giants-Riveras might actually have passed Colts-Vikings for the next best game. Unfortunately Titans-Chargers is the only other game on the Sunday slate pitting two teams above .500, with Bengals-Bucs, Eagles-Bears, and the remaining two potential Saturday games (Ravens-Browns and Falcons-Saints) as the most viable dark horses, likely leaving NBC stuck.

Week 17 (January 1):

• Tentative game: LA Rams @ LA Chargers
• Prospects: 3-4 v. 4-3. Decidedly mediocre, but still good enough to keep its spot as long as there isn’t some game that absolutely demands to be flexed in.
• Likely protections: Vikings-Packers (CBS) and Saints-Eagles, Jets-Seahawks, or nothing (FOX).
• Other possible games: Jets-Seahawks is the only game on the Sunday slate pitting two teams above .500; 5-3 v. 5-3 might not be enough to overcome the tentative game bias yet but it might not be that far off. Meanwhile, Colts-Giants might be too lopsided and Dolphins-Patriots might not be much if anything of an improvement. Cardinals-Falcons, Broncos-Chiefs, Saints-Eagles, and Browns-VoteDemocrats are dark horses.

Week 18 (January 8):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.