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Week 8 (SNF early flex #1): Here’s the situation: flexing in any Fox game other than Rams-Cowboys would force Bears-Chargers over to CBS, unless the league is willing to have Fox deliver Los Angeles a “double singleheader” where one game ends up on LA’s MyNet station KCOP. That likely means CBS would have to send Fox one of its games. Meanwhile, CBS currently has three games in the late afternoon window, all of them in the Pacific or Mountain time zones, and four games in the early window. So flexing in any game other than Rams-Cowboys or a CBS late game is going to, in all likelihood, require CBS to send Fox one of its late games. Joe Burrow has looked enough like Joe Burrow the past couple weeks that there’s no reason for CBS not to protect Bengals-Niners, and the other two West Coast games are being hosted by 1-5 teams. So the simplest move for the NFL would be to flex in Rams-Cowboys, except that might be the game Fox wants to keep the most. So the league could end up pressuring Fox not to protect it and let it go to NBC.
Of course, that might be a line of reasoning worthy of a certain commenter of mine. It’s not that difficult for the league to move games around if need be. Fox does have a worthy consolation prize in Eagles-Washington, but that game has lost the potential factor of the Eagles being unbeaten, so now all it has left is potential lopsidedness. Still, I’ve marked Fox as protecting that game partly so I can keep the notation for the Cowboys having six primetime appearances, even though I strongly doubt that’s going to be relevant the rest of the season.
If Fox does protect Rams-Cowboys, what does the league do? The Bears losing to a lackluster Vikings squad has probably sniffed out whatever hope existed that the Bears might have shown enough improvement in the Washington game to justify Bears-Chargers keeping its spot. On the 506sports Discord, the consensus seems to have been that a Washington win would be enough to get Eagles-Washington flexed in even with a Bears win, but I wouldn’t count out Jaguars-Steelers; the Jaguars may be ratings poison, but the Steelers are one of those teams with truly national fanbases, and the Jags do have a star quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Most importantly, it’s less lopsided and, again, the Eagles don’t have the unbeaten factor that could have overcome that. In my mind, the big problem is that without Jaguars-Steelers, CBS’ cupboard would be pretty bare in the early window; the only game they’d have without a team at 1-5 or worse would be Falcons-Titans, pitting a team that might be worse than their record against a team likely without Ryan Tannehill, both with little buzz outside their home markets. So you’d probably be looking at Eagles-Washington moving over to CBS to serve as the new early-window anchor. But of course, if we’re flexing in a game that’s not Rams-Cowboys we’d be moving games around anyway, so that’s not that big of an obstacle.
To be sure, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Eagles-Washington flexed in, but I’d like to think the league’s flexing decisions aren’t driven solely by market-based considerations, as much as it can seem that way sometimes. The Eagles would be coming off an SNF game against the Dolphins the previous week, and while the league can and does give teams consecutive SNF games through the flex process sometimes, my inclination is that they won’t do so here when there’s a viable alternative. (The Steelers do play the following Thursday night, but I don’t think that’ll factor into the league’s thinking.)
Final prediction:
- Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys to SNF (if Fox doesn’t protect it).
- If Fox protects Rams-Cowboys:
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers to SNF.
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Dead Witches to CBS.
- Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals to Fox.
