Week 14 (TNF only): Will the first test of TNF flexing involve taking out the mighty Patriots and Steelers in favor of the name-value black hole known as the Houston Texans? Will the first flex decision of the year involve moving the Rodgers-less Jets into a primetime window? I’m… not sure.
The problem is that the Los Angeles Rams ended the Packers’ four-game losing streak over the weekend in a game that wasn’t particularly competitive, raising the prospect that their game against the NFC South-leading Saints in two weeks won’t be particularly competitive either. The Texans’ relative success means that their game against the Browns that week is improving its prospects, but there are a few problems with it. At the most basic level, the Rams have three wins to the Pats’ two, but I’m willing to ignore that since the Pats and Steelers have significantly more name value. Moreover, the league might be unwilling to feature the Browns and DeShawn Watson too much considering the controversy swirling around him. But they haven’t entirely kept them out of standalone windows even with the increase in the TNF appearance cap meaning they don’t have to schedule them there, which brings me to the big problem: the Browns’ TNF game against the Jets is the following week, and if the Jets are at or above .500 without Rodgers that probably isn’t being flexed out. The NFL could have the Browns and Jets play a game with a three-day rest mismatch, but my inclination is that they’ll avoid that if it’s at all possible.
So if that’s not an option, where does that leave this week? As much as the Texans don’t have any name value, they do have a potential Rookie of the Year candidate in C.J. Stroud, and currently sit just a game behind the three non-Baltimore AFC North teams for a playoff spot. That’s a team you might want to give some showcase to (remember when the NFL’s schedule-makers said they didn’t want people’s first exposure to a playoff team to come in January?), and as it stands the Texans aren’t scheduled for any featured windows, not even TNF. In the past, NFL broadcasters have indicated that they value name value over the actual quality of the teams when deciding what games to keep and which to try to replace them with; would Amazon prefer to have even the current woeful Pats playing the always-popular Steelers over two teams with significantly less name or star power in the Texans and Jets? Would the NFL be willing to pull the trigger in this situation? I don’t know, and we’re in uncharted territory here trying to figure out how willing the league is going to be to pull a TNF flex. For all I know the league is going to treat TNF flexing as the same sort of “break glass in case of emergency” scenario the SNF early flex has turned out to be; worth noting that there’s one fewer flexible week on the TNF schedule than there are SNF early flex week. A flex could be mighty tempting in this scenario simply because it would allow the league to replace the Packers-Giants MNF game with any game it wants, but that’s probably two teams with more name value than the Pats and Steelers, and right now the only viable game not involving a team below .500 is Jags-Browns.
The Jets play a struggling Chargers team at home on Monday Night Football tonight. A loss would raise a lot of questions about how good a team the Jets really are without Rodgers. A win wouldn’t do that much to the Jets’ perception (though the Chargers are favored), but it would suggest the Texans and Jets are two teams that are at least decent. If the NFL wants to get their test of TNF flexing out of the way, they probably won’t have a better opportunity this season than this (though keep an eye on Colts-Falcons as an alternative to Saints-Rams).
Final prediction:
- Houston Texans @ New York Jets to TNF (if the Jets win tonight).
- No changes (for now) (if the Jets lose tonight).