Note: This post (mostly) does not reflect the result of the Thursday night game.
I said on Twitter that I wanted to get this out on Thursday even if I completed the percentage chances for the Sunday night games before then because I wanted to see if I could calculate percentage chances for the Saturday games, and I managed to get the Sunday games done on Tuesday morning, but then I dilly-dallied on actually writing the post until Friday morning, doing no work on the Saturday games in the meantime. Oops. Not a good sign for my ability to work on other posts I told myself I was going to work on after the election. If the Sunday situation was as convoluted as it’s been in some other recent years this might be another situation where I don’t get the post in at all; luckily there are very few games in the running for Sunday night in Week 18 and a couple of clear favorites (and even calculating the strength of victory situation for the Seahawks, while tedious, was relatively straightforward). It’s the flex decisions that were already made this week where the action is.
How NFL flexible scheduling works: (see also the NFL’s own page on flex schedule procedures)
- Up to two games in Weeks 5-10 (the “early flex” period), and any number of games from Week 11 onward, may be flexed into Sunday Night Football. Any number of games from Week 12 onward may be flexed into Monday Night Football, and up to two games from Week 13 onward may be flexed into Thursday Night Football. In addition, in select weeks in December a number of games may be listed as “TBD”, with two or three of those games being assigned to be played on Saturday. Note that I only cover early flexes if a star player on one of the teams is injured.
- Only games scheduled for Sunday afternoon, or set aside for a potential move to Saturday, may be flexed into one of the flex-eligible windows – not existing primetime games or games in other standalone windows. The game currently listed in the flex-eligible window will take the flexed-in game’s space on the Sunday afternoon slate, generally on the network that the flexed-in game was originally scheduled for. The league may also move Sunday afternoon games between 1 PM ET and 4:05 or 4:25 PM ET.
- Thursday Night Football flex moves must be announced 28 days in advance. Sunday and Monday Night Football moves must be announced 12 days in advance, except for Sunday night games in Week 14 onward, which can be announced at any point up until 6 days in advance.
- CBS and Fox have the right to protect one game each per week, among the games scheduled for their networks, from being flexed into primetime windows. During the early flex period, they may protect games at any point once the league tells them they’re thinking of pulling the flex. It’s not known when they must protect games in the main flex period, only that it’s “significantly closer to each game date” relative to the old deadline of Week 5. My assumption is that protections are due five weeks in advance, in accordance with the 28-day deadline for TNF flexes. Protections have never been officially publicized, and have not leaked en masse since 2014, so can only be speculated on.
- Supposedly, CBS and Fox are also guaranteed one half of each division rivalry. Notably, last year some Week 18 games (see below) had their other halves scheduled for the other conference’s network, though none were scheduled for primetime.
- No team may appear more than seven times in primetime windows – six scheduled before the season plus one flexed in. This appears to consider only the actual time the game is played, that is, Amazon’s Black Friday game does not count even though the rest of their TNF slate does, and NBC’s Saturday afternoon game Week 16 doesn’t count either. This post contains a list of all teams’ primetime appearances entering the season.
- Teams may play no more than two Thursday games following Sunday games, and (apparently) no more than one of them can be on the road.
- In Week 18 the entire schedule, consisting entirely of games between divisional opponents, is set on six days’ notice, usually during the previous week’s Sunday night game. One game will be scheduled for Sunday night, usually a game that decides who wins the division, a game where the winner is guaranteed to make the playoffs while the loser is out, or a game where one team makes the playoffs with a win but falls behind the winner of another game, and thus loses the division and/or misses the playoffs, with a loss. Two more games with playoff implications are scheduled for Saturday on ABC and ESPN, with the remaining games doled out to CBS and Fox on Sunday afternoon, with the league generally trying to maximize what each team has to play for. Protections and appearance limits do not apply to Week 18.
- Click here to learn how to read the charts.
Week 16 final schedule commentary (Week 14 post, Last-Minute Remarks): The guaranteed-divisional-rivalry rule is officially a problem the NFL needs to find some sort of solution to. The league moved Bills-Patriots, of all games, to the late window, and while I initially thought (contrary to most of the online reaction I saw) it was there as blowout protection (despite the Bills being two-touchdown favorites, meaning they’re the game that needs to be protected from being a blowout) or to create a split national window with Niners-Dolphins, it looks like it’ll be going to most of the country outside the South, Indiana, Ohio, and the West Coast, despite Nantz and Romo still being on Niners-Dolphins (and Eagle/Davis calling Bills-Patriots, a move that was originally made when it was still going to be at 1 PM ET).
Clearly Fox wasn’t willing to budge with regards to Vikings-Seahawks (or Eagles-Swing States), despite that game naturally getting limited distribution in the territories of the teams involved and the markets of teams playing on CBS in the early window, meaning the two best games of the day are stuck getting regional distribution where no market will get both games, while CBS’ late window features a choice of two mediocre-at-best games. I had thought the fact that CBS was the network that a Vikings-Seahawks crossflex would benefit would make it easier to make it worth Fox’s while – perhaps CBS could agree to let the league override one of their protections for Fox’s benefit next year, though given the bigger-name teams in the AFC that’s less likely to be a trade Fox would take – but in the end, the fact that all the week’s good games were on Fox’s slate and one of them was a rematch of a game played on Thursday night earlier in the year ended up biting the NFL hard.
It really feels like the league didn’t think through the implications the division rivalry rule would have on the protection regime when it agreed to it on top of allowing protections to be submitted later and not requiring the networks to leave a week unprotected. I don’t know if the league can make changes to the protection rules before the time comes when they can re-open the contracts after 2029 (at which point it’s possible CBS and Fox won’t be able to keep their rights at all in the face of the billions of dollars streaming companies could throw around), but the fact that CBS ended up being the odd network out here could make it easier for the league to convince them to weaken the protection regime without paying too much less, leaving Fox as the main network for them to play hardball with. Perhaps the singleheader network doesn’t get a protection if there’s a game involving two teams above .500 that’s locked into that network either because of the division rivalry rule or the minimum-games-per-team rule, to make one suggestion that would have a minimal impact on things but would have been a big help here. Or the league could schedule more wisely to minimize the risk of this sort of situation to begin with; that would involve taking some steps that I don’t think they’d want, but at the minimum minimizing the number of games the singleheader gets that benefit from the division rivalry rule in the main flex period should be considered.
Of course, the original sin here might be the decision to flex Broncos-Chargers to Thursday night, which really does look all the worse right now and continues to be justifiable only because of the league’s desire to have a test case for Thursday night flexing. It’s worth noting, though, that Niners-Dolphins is still a better game to have in a featured window than Browns-Bengals, with the Browns being eliminated from the playoffs already and the Bengals sitting behind the Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card pecking order. I may not be a fan of Thursday Night Football and think the late afternoon window is more important, but the NFL clearly wants TNF to be seen that way and to treat Amazon as a core partner, as evidenced by the introduction of TNF flexing to begin with. But I do wonder how much appetite the owners – and the other TV partners – will have for continuing TNF flexing into next season and beyond.
Week 17: The most important word in the NFL’s press release announcing the Saturday games and new Sunday night game is “revised” – as in “the revised Week 17 schedule”. “Revised”, as opposed to “final”. Translation: Cowboys-Eagles isn’t out of the woods yet when it comes to potentially switching places with Packers-Vikings, despite the Cowboys keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. Not helping matters is that those hopes depend on the Eagles beating Washington to clinch the division, though they’d still be in the thick of the race for the #1 seed; I suspect if Cowboys-Eagles did keep its spot that Raiders-Saints would move to the late window, despite basically nonexistent playoff implications, to provide blowout protection (and give Sunday Ticket some purpose in the late window for people getting Dolphins-Browns). But I definitely think it’s whether or not the Cowboys still have some playoff hopes that the league is waiting on.
Final prediction:
- Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings to 4:25 Fox (if the Cowboys lose or Washington wins);
- No changes otherwise (except for Raiders-Saints potentially moving as above).
Week 18: The Sunday night situation is decidedly straightforward, with Vikings-Lions and Seahawks-Rams being the main contenders by a wide margin, Niners-Cardinals being a dark horse, and one more game with what I consider to be infinitesimally small chances. The Saturday situation is a bit more chaotic, but it’s still relatively straightforward considering there are some clear favorites in the wild card race, with the Chargers entering the week with a two-game lead and the first teams out in the NFC all being closer to their respective division titles than the wild card. Let’s go through the percentage chances for each game to move to Sunday night only, and then run through the basics of the potential Saturday games. Note that these percentages are independent of one another; that is, they measure how likely a game is to be eligible for a Sunday night move (short of the league pulling the same shenanigans as two years ago), not how likely they are to actually be picked. Percentages are based on ESPN’s Matchup Predictor as of Thursday afternoon.
Potential Sunday night games
- Chances of Vikings-Lions: 55 percent. If the Vikings fall a game behind, the Lions would still win the division or common games tiebreaker with a Vikings win, so it would need to be the Lions losing if either team does. The chances here are so high because any scenario where the Vikings and Lions have the same record the next two weeks, or where the Vikings are a game better, would make this a suitable Sunday night game; even if the Vikings and Lions lose out while the Packers win out, the Packers can only win the division if the Vikings and Lions tie. On the other hand, the Lions play on Monday night of Week 17, which the league would probably prefer not to wait for before finalizing the Week 18 schedule; the chances that this game is guaranteed to be a division title game before next Monday night are only 34 percent, but that’s still better than the other main contender for the spot.
- Chances of Seahawks-Rams: 32 percent. There are a couple reasons why the chances here are so much lower. First, not only are the Seahawks underdogs against the Vikings, but both teams are only barely favored in all three of the remaining games; second, the Cardinals and Niners are still very much in striking distance to steal the division. Not only is there a possibility of this being a division title game for the Rams alone, where they’d fall behind the Niners-Cardinals winner with a loss, there’s even a puncher’s chance that it’s the other game that decides the NFC West…
- Chances of 49ers-Cardinals: 5 percent. If Arizona wins out, Seattle loses out, and the Rams beat the Jets, the Cardinals and Rams are sitting at 9-7 with the Cardinals having swept the Rams, while the Seahawks are at 8-8 having swept the Cardinals and hoping to split against the Rams. This would then become a win-and-in game for the Cardinals where the Seahawks-Rams winner would win the division with a Cardinals loss. Sorry Niners fans, but your division record would be 2-4 at best in this scenario while the Cardinals would have picked up a third division win, so this isn’t a division title game for you; luckily that means the league wouldn’t have to wait for the Monday night game in this instance.
- Chances of Bucs-Saints: <1 percent. This would require the Saints to win out, the Falcons to lose out, and the Bucs to lose at least once, and even then the Saints might only be able to win the division if the Falcons lose. It would be a win-and-in, lose-and-out game for the Bucs, at least, if they lose to the Panthers. This may have been a game I screwed up a bit on, and even if things were to break down right it would be more of a Saturday pick if any of the other scenarios played out.
- Chances of Natives-Cowboys: <1 percent. To be precise, the percentage chances here are .04%; even if Washington loses out while the Cowboys win out (and Eagles-Swing States is the only game where the outcome the Cowboys need is favored, leaving a 1% chance this game determines the order of finish between the teams) a lot could also depend on whether teams ahead of the Cowboys can steal the playoff spot; I have this depending on the Bucs losing out, the Cardinals and Rams losing at least once, and the Seahawks or Rams losing out. The league could go with this even if one or both teams are eliminated from the playoffs (though I doubt they’d do so over Seahawks-Rams), but it’d be chintzy.
- Obviously, this does not add up to 100 percent, and between the Monday night game and these percentages being independently calculated, that’ll leave a decent chance that there’s no suitable game under ideal circumstances. Then the game the league would go with for Game 272 would likely be determined by a combination of the name value of the teams, maximizing the chance the game has meaning for at least one team, and making sure the scenario where the game becomes meaningless is vanishingly unlikely. I’ll try to go more in-depth into those scenarios next week, but the time window will be tight with the Christmas day games and my flying up to Seattle on Christmas Eve (on top of the annual blog-day post).
Potential Saturday night games
Note that I don’t really have a good handle on how the league schedules Saturday games and they’ve rarely scheduled games the way I would, so while the below reflects my thinking it doesn’t necessarily reflect the league’s.
- Giants-Eagles: If the Eagles are still alive for the 1 seed and the NFC North hasn’t been settled, this would be a prime target for Saturday. The one wrinkle is that if Washington is still alive for the division, they probably can’t have clinched a playoff spot.
- AFC North games: Either or both of the AFC North games could move to Saturday. If both the division and the seed of the loser are unsettled, the division leader could make the move; I would think the 5 seed, and playing a very flawed Texans team, would be sufficient motivation for the division loser. If the seed of the winner is unsettled I could see the trailing team being the one that makes the move. If the division is settled, the winner’s game could make the move if they can still move within the top three seeds and the 1 seed is unsettled, while the loser’s game could move if they’re sitting on the 5 seed and the current 6 seed could still fall to 7. Finally, if the Bengals are still alive for the playoffs – and since they play the Broncos next Saturday the Thursday night result was ideal for them – Bengals-Steelers becomes all the more valuable, since the Bengals are likely sitting near the back of the tiebreaker order relative to the Colts and Dolphins.
- Bills-Patriots: Could make the move if the Bills’ seed is unsettled, but the league should be careful. Ideally, the Bills would be holding the 1 seed while the Chiefs remain at risk for losing the 2 seed to the AFC North winner; alternately, if the Steelers win their next two while the Chiefs lose their next two, and the Bills lose exactly once, then the Steelers have a chance to steal the 1 seed but the Bills have a chance to steal the 2 seed from them. (As an aside, if this last scenario happens, the Bengals are still alive for the playoffs, and so are the Colts or Dolphins, this could result in a pileup in the late afternoon window.)
- Bears-Packers: If the Packers are sitting in the 6 seed but can move up or down, and (if they can move up) the NFC North is undecided, this game could make the move. If the Lions and Vikings lose their next two while the Packers win their next two, even if a Vikings-Lions tie is a bit too much of a long shot the Packers would at least move up to the 5 seed with a win. If the Packers lose too much, though, they could become part of other teams’ elimination scenarios and then they should probably play after those other teams.
- Chargers-Raiders: In a similar situation as Bears-Packers with the added bonus that they could easily find themselves in the 5 seed depending on how the Ravens do the next two weeks.
- Chiefs-Broncos or Natives-Cowboys: In all likelihood the teams in these games need to move up from the 7 seed, or else a) have eliminated everyone else currently out of the playoffs and b) have a chance to move up to the 6 while the current 6 seed can still move up to the 5 (or in Washington’s case, they can also have a chance to steal the division while the Eagles still have a chance to take the 1 seed). Washington has the advantage that even if there are teams still in the running to take their wild card spot, they may still be fighting for the division; in fact there’s a very real, if remote, scenario where they enter the week on the outside looking in. Chiefs-Broncos has the added problem that if the Chiefs haven’t locked up the 1 seed, this game can only move to Saturday if the Bills and AFC North winner are still fighting for the 2.
- NFC West games: Unfortunately Niners-Cardinals probably can’t move to Saturday even though it has a larger collection of scenarios where it would be a good choice (between the “Rams lose to the Niners-Cardinals winner” scenario above and the Cardinals, and even the Niners, potentially being in wild card contention), with the Niners playing on Monday night. If both NFC North and West division title games happen, Seahawks-Rams could move to Saturday; alternately if one team has clinched the division, this could have wild card implications for one team and seeding vis-a-vis the NFC South winner for the other.
- NFC South games: Probably only an option if the division has already been clinched by either the Bucs or Falcons. For the division winner, seeding vis-a-vis the NFC West winner could be on the line; for the loser, potential wild card hopes. If the Cardinals, Cowboys, and Niners are all out of the wild card hunt, the Falcons would be the team currently in the back of the pecking order, followed by the Seahawks; the Falcons have a head-to-head loss to the Seahawks so they may need to be at least tied with them, or for the Seahawks to win the division.
- Texans-Titans: Applies if the Texans can move up from the 4 seed but either the AFC North or the 2 seed is unsettled.
- Dolphins-Jets or Jaguars-Colts: If the Bengals are out of the playoffs or are slated to play in the early Saturday game, these games, in order, are the games involving the teams currently in the back of the tiebreaker order for the AFC wild card. Note that I suspect the league would want the first team out to play at the same time as the last team in even if the last team in can improve their seed, so the result of the Thursday night game probably snuffed out the hopes of Jaguars-Colts being played on Saturday.